Ep. 36: Howard Marks

In this book, John Kenneth Galbraith traces the history of significant speculative episodes in the economy, from the tulip craze of the seventeenth century to the recent plague of junk bonds. He exposes how normally sane people display reckless behavior in pursuit of profit, attributing these behaviors to a 'notoriously short' financial memory that leads to market collapses. Galbraith emphasizes that recognizing these patterns can help guard against future recessions and improve financial stability. The book underscores the cyclical nature of financial euphoria, driven by mass psychology and leverage, and warns against the illusion that wealth is a measure of intelligence.

In 'Fooled by Randomness', Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses the pervasive influence of chance and randomness in our lives and financial markets. The book argues that humans tend to underestimate the role of luck and overestimate the role of skill, leading to biases such as hindsight bias, survivorship bias, and the narrative fallacy. Taleb emphasizes the importance of recognizing and coping with uncertainty, and he critiques the tendency to seek deterministic explanations for random events. The book is part of Taleb's Incerto series, which also includes 'The Black Swan', 'The Bed of Procrustes', 'Antifragile', and 'Skin in the Game'.

In 'Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side,' Howard Marks provides a comprehensive overview of market cycles, emphasizing the importance of understanding the patterns of ups and downs influenced by economics, markets, companies, and human psychology. Marks draws on his decades of experience to explain how investors can position their portfolios to take advantage of market cycles by studying past cycles, understanding their origins, and remaining alert for the next cycle. The book highlights that market cycles are driven by cause-and-effect relationships and that investors should prepare rather than predict market outcomes. It also delves into the psychological markers and emotional factors that influence investor behavior during different phases of the cycle.