Joining us today is David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase, discussing macro economics, yield curves, election fears, US equities, and the recession.
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Quick takeaways
Equities are currently at high levels due to growth and outperformance, particularly in the US stock market, with concerns about equity prices as higher bond yields may impact valuation.
The US government's significant fiscal spending has provided a boost to the US economy, which has outperformed other countries, but concerns arise as this stimulus is expected to taper off in 2024, potentially leading to a downturn.
The resumption of student loan repayments has led to rising defaults and delinquencies, which, along with other credit factors, contribute to the potential for a recession in early 2024.
Deep dives
Equities are high due to growth and outperformance
Equities are currently at high levels due to growth and outperformance, particularly in the US stock market. Other countries seek access to the US stock market as their economies struggle. However, there are concerns about equity prices as higher bond yields may impact valuation. The relationship between bond yields and equities is complex and not always predictable. Additionally, the correlation between crypto and equities has been low recently, with crypto outperforming equities on a risk-adjusted basis. This may be due to various factors such as increased institutional interest and positive regulatory developments.
Government spending and fiscal stimulus have propped up the US economy
The US government has engaged in significant fiscal spending, introducing acts and bills totaling trillions of dollars. This spending has provided a boost to the US economy, which has outperformed other countries. The availability of funds and the ability to borrow as the issuer of the reserve currency contribute to the US's exceptional fiscal power. However, concerns arise as this stimulus is expected to taper off in 2024, potentially leading to a downturn in the economy.
Student loan repayments and their impact on the economy
The resumption of student loan repayments has led to rising defaults and delinquencies, contributing to the broader credit situation. While the direct impact on the economy may not be significant, it adds to other concerns such as mortgage rates, housing, and overall credit stability. Student loan repayments, along with other credit factors, play a role in shaping the potential for a recession in early 2024.
Potential shift in global reserve currency
There are concerns about the future demand for US Treasury bonds as collateral globally, which could affect the global reserve currency status of the US dollar. Japan, currently the largest buyer of Treasury bonds, may reduce its purchases, potentially necessitating intervention from the Federal Reserve. The US dollar's position in countries' reserves is still significant, but the world is changing, and there is uncertainty about its future role.
Implications of fiscal intervention on the economy
The fiscal intervention during the COVID-19 pandemic buoyed the US economy and created a soft landing. Without it, the economy may have experienced a more significant slowdown, with potential negative impacts on housing and overall demand. However, there are concerns about underemployment and suppressed wages, indicating that the recovery may not be as robust as expected. The trajectory of inflation and the Fed's response to it will also influence the economy and asset classes like crypto and stocks.
Joining us today is the Head of Research at Coinbase, David Duong, and macro is on the menu. We’re talking yield curves, election fears, US equities, and if macro economics is even real.
And finally, David walks us through the recession. Is it delayed, is it cancelled, is it already here? ----- 🏹 Airdrop Hunter is HERE, join your first HUNT today https://bankless.cc/JoinYourFirstHUNT
Quarterly Outlook: Crypto Markets in 10 Charts https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights ----- Chapters: 0:00 Intro 9:38 Is Everything Going Alright? 13:09 Is Macro Economics even Real? 16:43 Government Fiscal Spending 21:44 Election Impact 24:11 US Exceptionalism? 29:14 The Impact of Fiscal Stimulus 38:30 How important is Cash? 45:29 US Equities 52:23 Student Loans 56:39 Recession Talk ----- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
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