Bankless The 2023 Recession with Coinbase's David Duong
Oct 3, 2023
David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase, shares his insights on the current macroeconomic landscape. He dives into discussions about yield curves and their historical significance as recession indicators. David questions the reality of macro economics and explores the impact of government fiscal spending post-banking crisis. He discusses the increased value of cash in today's market and contrasts U.S. equities with cryptocurrencies, all while addressing the looming recession and its many complexities.
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Recession Timing and Unusual Economic Behavior
- The yield curve inversion signals a coming recession, but its timing is uncertain, ranging from 120 to 400 days.
- Current positive indicators like job openings are declining, and traditional macroeconomic relationships are not working as expected.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Defying Historical Patterns
- Macroeconomics relies on social science and human behavior, making predictions challenging.
- Current economic relationships defy historical patterns, like the Fed's rate hikes not significantly weakening the economy.
Government Spending and Economic Influence
- Government spending is significantly influencing the US economy.
- This fiscal stimulus is counteracting the Fed's efforts to weaken the economy and control inflation.