Potential Rate Cuts on Fed Day and Harris-Trump on the Economy
Sep 18, 2024
auto_awesome
Alicia Levine, Head of Equities at BNY Wealth Management, shares her insights on the uncertainty surrounding potential Fed rate cuts through 2025 and their implications for risk assets. Jason Furman, Professor of Practice in Economic Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, discusses economic policies under Trump and Harris, exploring how presidential leadership shapes economic outlooks. The duo also delves into the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates and the potential fallouts of tariffs on consumers and trade.
As the Fed's rate cuts approach, certain equity sectors like REITs and financials are expected to thrive, despite potential market volatility.
Concerns about potential tariff policies highlight risks to the U.S. economy, emphasizing the importance of thoughtful negotiation strategies.
Deep dives
Current Market Dynamics and Fed Actions
The financial landscape currently shows signs of a significant turn, particularly following the Fed's pivot in December. This pivotal moment has led to an increase in market activity, with the market up 19% year to date. As the Fed begins to cut rates, there is an expectation of market volatility, but historical trends suggest that being in the bond market during such times is advantageous. Notably, the market's anticipation of these cuts suggests that investors should carefully consider their positions in both bonds and equities.
Equity Market Strategy Amid Fed Cuts
As the Fed prepares to implement rate cuts, certain sectors within the equity market are gaining particular attention. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and financials have been highlighted as strong performers during this period. Historically, when the Fed cuts rates without being in a recession, equities can experience growth, contrasting with the often expected sell-off during times of distress. Analysts are optimistic about continued rallying in these sectors, seeing no immediate signs of recession or deterioration in earnings prospects.
Concerns Over Future Economic Policy and Tariffs
There are emerging concerns regarding the potential impact of tariff policies on the U.S. economy, especially if the political landscape shifts. The introduction of significant tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices, inflating the economy and impacting the Fed's interest rate strategies. Such policies pose risks of exacerbating trade deficits and could stifle economic growth without providing adequate justification or negotiation strategies. Analysts warn that a rise in tariffs could have detrimental effects, especially for the labor market and trade relations.
The Role of Generative AI in Business Transformation
The integration of generative AI into business operations is becoming increasingly critical for companies looking to maintain competitive advantages. Business leaders face challenges in effectively deploying AI, necessitating a strategic and holistic approach rather than isolated pilots. Consultants emphasize the importance of data quality and regulatory frameworks in ensuring the ethical use of AI technologies. As companies seek to incorporate AI, they must also consider employee training and adoption to fully realize its transformative potential.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneySeptember 18th, 2024 Featuring:
Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy & Equities at BNY Wealth, discusses why she believes the Fed rate cut path remains uncertain through 2025 and what it all means for risk assets
Jason Furman, Professor: Practice Economic Policy at Harvard Kennedy School John F Kennedy School of Government, discusses his opinion piece on Trump and Harris economic policies and offers his Fed outlook
Paul Knopp, CEO at KPMG, discusses the firm's findings on CEO sentiment about the US economy and offers his view on US economic activity and outlook