Bloomberg Surveillance Dollar in Flux Ahead of FOMC Decision
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Jan 28, 2026 
Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau, gives a crisp FX take and explains Mundell's trilemma in modern capital-flow terms. Constance Hunter, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, covers GDP outlook, tariffs and Fed tradeoffs. They probe dollar weakness, inflation risks, capital flows and how these forces shape policy and markets.
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Tariffs And Dollar Risk Could Shift Fed Path
- Tariff uncertainty and a weaker dollar create risk of inflation pass-through that the Fed must monitor closely.
- Constance Hunter warns these forces could push the Fed toward two cuts in the second half if pass-through and growth dynamics shift.
Watch Tariff Pass-Through Before Acting
- The Fed should 'watch and wait' on tariff-driven price moves before changing policy.
- Hunter advises monitoring whether firms finally pass on tariff-related price hikes when households get tax refunds.
Front-Half Growth Trade Drives Cyclical Rally
- Citi sees a bullish U.S. growth narrative into the first half of 2026 helped by anticipated tax refunds.
- Stuart Kaiser frames this as a front-half cyclical trade that may reverse later in the year.
