David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, shares insights on the 2024 equity rally and the evolving roles of Bitcoin and gold amid market fluctuations. Richard Haas, former President of the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the implications of political turmoil in France and Korea, highlighting shifting U.S. foreign relations. Wendy Schiller, a Brown University professor, delves into the Senate's response to executive power and Trump's influence on nominations, underlining the complexities of modern U.S. politics.
David Rosenberg emphasizes that post-pandemic productivity growth has reshaped traditional economic views amidst a cooling U.S. labor market.
Richard Haas discusses the implications of political turmoil in key countries and its impact on U.S. relations with allies.
Deep dives
AI Investment Opportunities
Investing in the GlobalX Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF allows individuals to tap into companies that are innovating in robotics and AI across various sectors, such as industrials and healthcare. This approach provides exposure to disruptive technological advancements that can reshape industries. However, potential investors need to be aware of the inherent risks involved, including the possibility of losing principal and the volatility associated with technology stocks due to product obsolescence and intense competition. Thoroughly reviewing the fund's objectives and associated risks is essential prior to making any investment decisions.
Current Economic Trends
David Rosenberg forecasts a prevailing trend of lower interest rates, influenced by a probable hawkish cut from the Federal Reserve by mid-December. He suggests that the Fed's dot plot may adjust from predicting four cuts to only two and possibly revert back depending on upcoming data. This shift reflects the Fed's reactive stance to economic indicators. Additionally, Rosenberg believes that we are unlikely to see significant tariff increases, as the current administration appears to favor using tariffs strategically rather than for broad economic warfare.
Impact of COVID-19 on Productivity
Rosenberg notes that post-pandemic dynamics have unexpectedly driven productivity growth, especially within the retail sector, which adapted by accelerating digital transformations. He argues that the increased emphasis on efficiency and technology adoption during lockdowns has resulted in lasting improvements in productivity. This shift challenges traditional views that correlate productivity growth with demand-side stimuli. The ongoing advancements in technology and AI are seen as crucial in shaping the future trajectory of productivity over the next decade.
Labor Market Observations
The U.S. labor market is exhibiting signs of cooling, yet it is not contracting, according to recent jobless claims data. While larger businesses have shown a surge in hiring, small companies have struggled, leading to inconsistent hiring trends across different sectors. Rosenberg highlights discrepancies within various employment reports, suggesting that overall economic activity appears muddled, with some indicators signaling weakness. He expresses skepticism towards the Federal Reserve's positive outlook on the economy, emphasizing the complexities and anomalies currently present in labor data.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 5th, 2024 Featuring:
David Rosenberg, founder and president at Rosenberg Research & Associates, discusses the 2024 equity rally, Bitcoin, and how the market is broadening
James Steel, Chief Commodities Analyst with HSBC, on hedges in the market and the outlook for gold
Richard Haas, Senior Counselor with Centerview Partners and President emeritus of Council on Foreign Relations, on political turmoil in France and South Korea and the US' relationships with its allies is changing
Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University, discusses the latest on Trump's cabinet picks and other DC headlines