Trump, Social Security and the future of retirement in America
Dec 5, 2024
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Teresa Ghilarducci, a leading economics professor at The New School and author of "Work, Retire, Repeat," dives into the pressing issues surrounding Social Security. She reveals how President Trump's proposals could hasten the program's insolvency by two years, raising alarms about its future. Ghilarducci discusses the complexities of Social Security taxes, urges urgent reforms, and emphasizes the necessity of government-run retirement plans. Her insights shed light on the fragility of retirement funding and the contradictions in public support for government programs.
The Social Security system, while currently stable, faces a looming insolvency crisis by 2034 due to demographic and economic shifts.
Trump's proposed policies, including tax cuts for high-income retirees and raising the retirement age, threaten to exacerbate Social Security's funding issues.
Deep dives
Social Security's Current Stability
Social Security is presently functioning effectively, providing reliable benefits to millions of Americans, including children of disabled or deceased parents. The system operates on funds collected from both employees and employers through FICA taxes, which currently make up 6.2% of wages up to a cap. This means that for the majority of workers, Social Security reliably supports their retirement income, safeguarding many individuals from poverty. However, while the system is currently stable, there are concerns about its long-term viability as demographic changes and economic factors could lead to reduced funding in the future.
Projected Funding Crisis
Experts predict that Social Security could face insolvency by 2034, leading to significant cuts in benefits for retirees if proactive measures are not taken. The crisis stems from an expected shortfall in revenue as the labor force shrinks and economic conditions fluctuate, impacting the contributions made through FICA taxes. If left unaddressed, retirees could see average benefit reductions of 25%, creating widespread financial instability for millions. The urgency to find solutions is compounded by political inaction and proposals that could worsen the financial landscape.
Impact of Trump's Policy Proposals
Trump's proposals, including eliminating certain taxes on Social Security and raising the retirement age, could exacerbate the program's funding issues. Specifically, his plans to discount taxes for high-income retirees would drain vital revenue from Social Security, potentially accelerating the timeline to insolvency. Additionally, raising the retirement age is viewed as a covert method of cutting benefits, affecting those who rely on Social Security for their financial well-being. The combined effect of these proposals could lead to increased poverty rates among the elderly and threaten the financial security of future retirees.
Need for Comprehensive Reform
There is a pressing need for comprehensive reform to ensure the long-term sustainability of Social Security and improve retirement savings mechanisms for all Americans. Options include increasing the tax rate, lifting the income cap for contributions, and implementing broader taxation that includes capital gains. Experts advocate for creating a robust retirement savings system that should also be accessible to gig economy workers, who currently lack effective ways to save. Establishing these reforms will not only secure Social Security but also address the broader issues of retirement insecurity that affect a significant portion of the population.
For years experts have warned about a looming crisis facing the Social Security system. According to current estimates, the program will become insolvent by 2034, at which time benefits would be automatically cut.
During the campaign, President-elect Trump positioned himself as an advocate of the program, which remains highly popular among voters. But economist Teresa Ghilarducci says that if you dig into his proposals, a different picture emerges.
A recent analysis shows his policies would move up the date of insolvency from 11 years to 9 years. “It’s kind of a shocker,” she says. “He’s very bold in his policies.”
Teresa Ghilarducci is a professor of economics at The New School and author of the new book "Work, Retire, Repeat: The Uncertainty of Retirement in the New Economy.” She joins Diane to explain the urgency of addressing Social Security’s finances and why Trump’s proposals would make the situation worse.
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