Neil Dutta, Head of US Research at Renaissance Macro Research, delves into macroeconomic trends and forecasts a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. Dan Ives, Global Head of Technology at Wedbush Securities, discusses the alarming impact of new tariffs on tech giants like Apple and Dell, stressing how they could spiral costs and hamper supply chains. David Blanchflower, labor economist at Dartmouth, examines the implications for wages and employment in a high-tariff environment, raising critical questions about the labor market's resilience amid economic strain.
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insights INSIGHT
Somm Rule
The Somm rule triggers when the unemployment rate reaches 4.5%.
Claudia Sahm believes the US is months away from a 4.5% unemployment rate.
insights INSIGHT
Jobs Data Context
Today's jobs data is important for understanding the macroeconomic context, not necessarily the impact of tariffs.
A strong labor market can help buffer against recession, as seen in 2022-2023.
insights INSIGHT
Grim Outlook
Sentiment surveys from consumers and businesses suggest a grim economic outlook.
These surveys can be hard to interpret, but they offer insights into future expectations.
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How to Make the Most Consequential Decision in the World
Gautam Mukunda
In 'Picking Presidents', Gautam Mukunda provides a detailed framework for evaluating presidential candidates. The book combines insights from political science, psychology, organizational behavior, and economics to help readers determine whether a candidate will succeed or fail in the White House. Mukunda analyzes both 'filtered' and 'unfiltered' presidents, drawing examples from historical figures such as Harry Truman, James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, and Theodore Roosevelt. The book aims to equip every American with the tools to cast an informed vote and understand the complexities of presidential leadership[1][4][5].
The wage curve
The wage curve
David Blanchflower
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 4th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Neil Dutta, Head: US Research at Renaissance Macro Research, and Jamie Patton, Co-Head of Global Rates at TCW, react to today's jobs figures and discuss the outlook for the Fed and Jay Powell. Traders have increased their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, with money markets now showing 100 basis points of reductions by year-end. 2) Dan Ives, Global Head of Technology at Wedbush Securities, discusses the "worse than worse case scenario" tariff announcement as it relates to tech. President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports from virtually every US trading partner, affecting tech companies like Dell, Apple, Sonos, and HP. The tariffs will increase costs, slow demand, and strain global supply chains, with levies ranging from 10% to 46% on imports from countries like China, Taiwan, and South Korea. 3) David Blanchflower, economics professor and labor economist at Dartmouth University, on labor and wages in a high tariff America. As tariffs set into the American economy, it's unclear how they will affect wages and the labor market. It comes as Republicans are considering creating a new tax bracket for those earning $1 million or more, with a top rate of around 39% to 40%, to offset the costs of their tax bill. 4) Gautam Mukunda, professor at Yale University School of Management and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, on the short and long-term political impact of tariffs. It comes as a new poll shows President Trump's approval rating slipping ahead of his tariff announcement. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including the Wall Street Journal story on the domino affect from the trade war and the New York Times' look at the grocery aisle and the impact of tariffs
Bloomberg Surveillance 
