Traders React to the Jobs Report as Tariffs Sink In

7 snips

Apr 4, 2025

Guest

Neil Dutta, Head of US Research at Renaissance Macro Research, delves into macroeconomic trends and forecasts a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. Dan Ives, Global Head of Technology at Wedbush Securities, discusses the alarming impact of new tariffs on tech giants like Apple and Dell, stressing how they could spiral costs and hamper supply chains. David Blanchflower, labor economist at Dartmouth, examines the implications for wages and employment in a high-tariff environment, raising critical questions about the labor market's resilience amid economic strain.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Books

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Somm Rule

The Somm rule triggers when the unemployment rate reaches 4.5%.
Claudia Sahm believes the US is months away from a 4.5% unemployment rate.

INSIGHT

Jobs Data Context

Today's jobs data is important for understanding the macroeconomic context, not necessarily the impact of tariffs.
A strong labor market can help buffer against recession, as seen in 2022-2023.

INSIGHT

Grim Outlook

Sentiment surveys from consumers and businesses suggest a grim economic outlook.
These surveys can be hard to interpret, but they offer insights into future expectations.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 4th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Neil Dutta, Head: US Research at Renaissance Macro Research, and Jamie Patton, Co-Head of Global Rates at TCW, react to today's jobs figures and discuss the outlook for the Fed and Jay Powell. Traders have increased their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, with money markets now showing 100 basis points of reductions by year-end.
2) Dan Ives, Global Head of Technology at Wedbush Securities, discusses the "worse than worse case scenario" tariff announcement as it relates to tech. President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports from virtually every US trading partner, affecting tech companies like Dell, Apple, Sonos, and HP. The tariffs will increase costs, slow demand, and strain global supply chains, with levies ranging from 10% to 46% on imports from countries like China, Taiwan, and South Korea.
3) David Blanchflower, economics professor and labor economist at Dartmouth University, on labor and wages in a high tariff America. As tariffs set into the American economy, it's unclear how they will affect wages and the labor market. It comes as Republicans are considering creating a new tax bracket for those earning $1 million or more, with a top rate of around 39% to 40%, to offset the costs of their tax bill.
4) Gautam Mukunda, professor at Yale University School of Management and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, on the short and long-term political impact of tariffs. It comes as a new poll shows President Trump's approval rating slipping ahead of his tariff announcement.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including the Wall Street Journal story on the domino affect from the trade war and the New York Times' look at the grocery aisle and the impact of tariffs

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.