The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series

Stop Obsessing Over the Polls and Take a Hike Instead || Peter Zeihan

Jul 19, 2024

Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan discusses the challenges of predicting US election outcomes due to political violence and polling limitations. The impact of RFK Jr. on Donald Trump's support is explored, emphasizing the need to wait for polling changes closer to September and the Democratic Convention for more reliable forecasts.

05:32

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Peter Zeihan

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Quick takeaways

National polls have significant margins of error and don't reflect independent voters.

Third-party candidates like RFK Jr. could impact election results by drawing support from major party candidates.

Deep dives

Limited Predictive Power of Polls

The episode discusses the limited predictive power of polls in the context of the 2024 presidential elections. The speaker highlights that national polls often have significant margins of error and do not account for independent voters who may sway election outcomes. Additionally, the Electoral College system in the United States means that state polling is more crucial than national polling. The episode emphasizes the importance of waiting until September to analyze polls and mentions a website, 2702win, that aggregates high-quality state polls for a more accurate assessment.

Unpredictability of Political Violence and the Limitations of Polling in US Elections

4min

Analyzing the Impact of RFK Jr. on the Political Landscape and Emphasizing Wait for Polling Changes

2min

Everyone wants to know if the assassination attempt on Donald Trump is going to impact the outcome of the election. I hate to break it to you, but no one knows.

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