Stop Obsessing Over the Polls and Take a Hike Instead || Peter Zeihan
Jul 19, 2024
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Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan discusses the challenges of predicting US election outcomes due to political violence and polling limitations. The impact of RFK Jr. on Donald Trump's support is explored, emphasizing the need to wait for polling changes closer to September and the Democratic Convention for more reliable forecasts.
National polls have significant margins of error and don't reflect independent voters.
Third-party candidates like RFK Jr. could impact election results by drawing support from major party candidates.
Deep dives
Limited Predictive Power of Polls
The episode discusses the limited predictive power of polls in the context of the 2024 presidential elections. The speaker highlights that national polls often have significant margins of error and do not account for independent voters who may sway election outcomes. Additionally, the Electoral College system in the United States means that state polling is more crucial than national polling. The episode emphasizes the importance of waiting until September to analyze polls and mentions a website, 2702win, that aggregates high-quality state polls for a more accurate assessment.
Impact of Third-Party Candidates
The podcast delves into the potential impact of third-party candidates on election results, focusing on the example of RFK Jr. The speaker explains how third-party candidates like Ralph Nader in the 2000 election could influence outcomes by drawing support away from major party candidates. RFK Jr.'s entry into the current election race introduces a new dynamic, potentially affecting support for other candidates. The episode underlines the significance of considering third-party candidates in polling analysis and suggests that their presence could alter state outcomes.
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Unpredictability of Political Violence and the Limitations of Polling in US Elections
Everyone wants to know if the assassination attempt on Donald Trump is going to impact the outcome of the election. I hate to break it to you, but no one knows.