Redefining Energy 202. The US Power Industry Mismatch: Large Load Growth vs. Investment Capital - Nov25
16 snips
Nov 3, 2025 Bryan Long, Executive Director at JPMorgan’s Commodities Group, brings a wealth of expertise in power trading to the discussion. He highlights the alarming mismatch in the U.S. energy market, where soaring demand from data centers isn't met with adequate investment. Misaligned pricing and liquidity constraints hinder new capacity development. Bryan discusses the consolidation of Independent Power Producers and the need for regulatory reforms to align investment incentives with future demand. He warns that without significant changes, the market risks falling short as demand continues to rise.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Short-Term Liquidity, Long-Term Thinness
- US power markets show deep short-term liquidity but thin long-term liquidity beyond three months.
- Long-tenor trading is limited by credit, collateral and fewer counterparties, raising hedging costs.
Forward Curves Don’t Signal Needed Returns
- Forward curves currently underprice the revenues needed to finance new generation like CCGTs.
- Without higher price signals or alternative supports, private capital will balk at building needed capacity.
Combine PPAs, Subsidies And Merchant Capital
- Use long-term PPAs, government programs, or merchant risk capital to secure financing for large loads.
- Mix contracting approaches because no single pathway will cover the volume of future demand.
