Simplify Asset Management's Chief Strategist, Michael Green, a prolific researcher and writer, with a huge and popular following on Twitter, where he tweets as @ProfPlum 99 and Real Vision where he shares his thoughts and industry contacts in his Mike Green – In Conversation series, as well as a famed observer of probabilistic market and economic outcomes, provides a deep dive into the current economic landscape and his investment strategy. The market is in a state of uncertainty due to various factors, such as inflation data, recession, and passive investing dynamics.

Green discusses the Federal Reserve's actions and its potential impact on the economy, and explains his thoughts on why, in his opinion, the Fed has overreacted in terms of the bluntness and depth of it's policy response, and what that means for investors and the economy going forward.

He believes that we are already in a recession (the Fed has gone too far too fast) – without considering that the severity of the recession is often a function of who is trying to get into the job market (e.g. highly skilled, highly paid workers vs. average workers). We examine the unemployment story and the heightened risk of a two-speed economy, as well as specific impacts of recent events such as the Ukraine conflict and the pandemic stimulus.

The episode delves into the potential impact of technological advancements on the economy, such as the deflationary and inflationary effects of technology.

We discuss potential negative impact on equities of profit (EPS) recession on equities, due to less investment as a result of the decrease in capital availability, arising from an increase in unemployment.

Join us for a fascinating, thought-provoking analysis of the economic landscape and provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers alike.

Where to find Michael Green:

Michael Green at Simplify

Michael Green on Twitter

Michael Green on Substack

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