
The State of Tech 6/17/24
Halftime Report
Adobe and Microsoft in the Tech Markets
The chapter delves into Adobe's legal issues with the US government over subscription practices, while also examining their AI monetization and potential. It further explores Dan Ives' upgrade of Microsoft and the market performance of software companies like Palantir and CrowdStrike.
00:00
Transcript
Play full episode
Transcript
Episode notes
Speaker 1
Yeah, I feel like tech's going to dominate this show. So speaking of tech, we have a news story in the tech space we want to talk to you about. It's Adobe. You can take a look. Shares are down just about 2 .5 % right now. This is on news that the US is suing Adobe, claiming that it harms consumers by enrolling them in subscription plans without clearly disclosing some important terms. Important to note here, some of its most popular products are available only by subscription. That includes Photoshop and also its video editing software premiere. Jim, you actually recently bought some Adobe. Again, share us down just about two and a half percent on this news that the government is suing Adobe.
Speaker 4
Yeah, recently as in today, as in taking advantage of this debt, whatever this lawsuit is, I mean, not very many software companies sell on anything other than a subscription service. But more importantly, what you got from last week's Adobe results is clear indication that Adobe has figured out very well how to monetize AI. That's not true at every company, by the way, but Adobe certainly has. We all know what it does. Probably many of us have used their AI capability, whether it's generating images or giving synopses of very long PDFs that we receive. I mean, it's a pretty obvious play here at the forward multiple of around 27. I find it's a very attractive entry point. Stock is languished for a long period of time and I'm happy to start building the position here.
Speaker 1
All right. another tech name to talk about we're talking about Microsoft. Dan Ives actually upgrading Microsoft raising his price target now has that price target at 550. Everybody pretty much owns it here. Joe I'm gonna come over to you. What do you make of this this price target upgrade upgrade? Does
Speaker 2
that make it a four trillion dollar company? We could do the math real quick. Yeah I mean you mean now. that's right around four trillion dollars stock is at an all -time high today There are three companies in software that seem to be exhibiting Resiliency in an environment where software is being challenged Jimmy was just talking about Adobe the Jotit ETF is long Adobe We need Adobe to do more than what they did, which was a good earnings report last week, but they have to be able to assuage some of the current CERNs surrounding does AI cannibalize their existing products. Microsoft itself appears to be in the sweet spot of software. It's Microsoft, it's Palantir, it's CrowdStrike that enjoy the resiliency and therefore the performance. I think Microsoft, while it is rich a valuation perspective, find me another stock outside the mega caps that offer you the degree of defensive nature while also playing offense. Tony Pascarello calls it the sword and the shield. It's a great, accurate assessment of how to think about these companies. I would stay with Microsoft, even as it continues to move to new all time eyes. You know, Anastasia, Microsoft really just represents this
Speaker 1
entire tech trade, really. I mean, how do you view number one, the upgrade? I know you don't talk individual stocks, but just this continued bullishness on these stocks, when you would think at some point, all this is priced in, all this AI transformation.
Speaker 3
Well, maybe the next quarter of the AI transformation is priced in, but I don't think the next several years is really was priced in. And the other thing that's happened too is people chase AI in semiconductor stocks and rightfully so because that's where you see the first wave of investments. But at some point this monetization is going to the so -called relay race is going to, the baton is going to get passed to software. And we see that in the names that were just mentioned like Microsoft and Adobe, but I think more and more software names are going to participate in that. But what I would also say is I don't expect the mega cap leadership to fall apart, but I do expect that outperformance to come down. And the reason is, you know, the sword and shield common, Joe, that you made, the reason for that is because the MAC 5 grew their earnings per at something like 64% of the first quarter. And that slowed down some or will slow down some in the second quarter. And it's going to further slow down towards 15 or 17% by the end of the fourth quarter of this year. So as that slows down, but the rest of the 4 .95 actually pick up and should be pacing 19% year over year earnings growth. think that's what evens up the playing field. So maybe taking some gains in chips, taking some gains in mega caps makes sense. And I actually do think that it's time to rotate back into some of those cyclicals.
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee break down the state of the tech trade as Jim Lebenthal adds a new name to his portfolio.
Plus, the setup on Lennar ahead of earnings after the bell. And we're going global with a look at international opportunities in ETF market.