The Importance of Probability in Decision-Making

A lot of pushback people give on anyone who's working on low probability, but potentially bad, very large risks is you're being Pascal's mugged. You have to just be willing to say at some point that I'm not willing to take infinitely long odds for an infinite payoff or something. And so if you think that saving five million lives is important and valuable, and you sort of trust the assumptions that you're relying on in your analysis it can really easily make sense to do stuff with that kind of probability.