The El Farol problem and unpredictability

The Third Episode of the Series! (Scroll down the earlier ones below).

Matt Zeigler and I had the privilege of hosting Robert Hagstrom (The Warren Buffett Way) and Chris Mayer (100 Baggers) for a special 100-Year Thinkers Edition of the Excess Returns Podcast.

Two legendary investors and authors. One hour packed with timeless wisdom on long-term thinking and wealth creation. This is the conversation we’ve been wanting to have—and we think you’ll find it as valuable as we did.

Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧

I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.In this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, we bring together Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer for a wide-ranging conversation on how great investors really think. Rather than focusing on formulas, factor labels, or short-term market predictions, the discussion explores investing as a discipline grounded in philosophy, language, psychology, and long-term business fundamentals. Drawing on ideas from Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Bill Miller, and thinkers from outside finance, this conversation challenges many of Wall Street’s most common assumptions and offers a deeper framework for making better long-term investment decisions. Topics covered in this episode

• Why value investing has nothing to do with price to earnings or price to book ratios
• The false divide between value and growth investing and why growth is a component of value
• How abstractions and labels distort decision making in markets
• General semantics and how language shapes investing mistakes
• Charlie Munger’s concept of worldly wisdom and the latticework of mental models
• Why reversion to the mean is a flawed way to think about markets
• The stock market as a complex adaptive system rather than a predictable machine
• Why most market forecasts fail and why people still believe them
• Myopic loss aversion and how frequent evaluation destroys long-term returns
• The importance of time horizon, patience, and long-term compounding
• How great investors think about conviction, uncertainty, and being wrong
• When to hold through difficulty versus when to exit an investment
• Lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Bill Miller on thinking independently

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement

Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.