4min chapter

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Against Bayesianism — David Deutsch

The Joe Walker Podcast

CHAPTER

Is It Impossible to Know the Orbit of Mars?

It's impossible to know which parts of the future are going to be affected by knowledge. But that doesn't mean that it's completely useless, because we have explanations. So for most of our species history, knowledge was sparse and grew slowly, if atall. Does this mean that people could have made better predictions about the near futures of their societies than we can of ours? Yes. Their legitimate predictions are not justified knowledge. They are, they are conjectures, just like everything else. It's just ha their rivals have failed criticism, which doesn't mean their falts. And the rational way of proceeding is to proceed according to the best explanation.

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