THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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How to Correct Intuitive Predictions
The biases we find in predictions that are expressed on a scale such as GPA or the revenue of a firm are similar to the biases observed in judging the probabilities of outcomes. I also described a procedure that counters the common biases of discrete prediction, neglect of base rates and insensitivity to the quality of information. The two procedures are intended to address the same bias. Intuitive predictions tend to be overconfident and overly extreme.
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