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Is Jerome Powell Getting the Soft Landing?
I see very little reason why the Fed would surprise the market. As you mentioned, inflation is coming down rapidly. The S&P 500 fell peak to trough from January 3 to October 16 of last year, 25.4%. That's very much in line with how markets decline around or associated with relatively mild recessions. Will we have a recession? There's a reasonable probability of it. But what matters more for investors is that the market has largely priced it in.