Can we believe the polls?
The Science of Politics
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Unpacking Polling Data Dynamics
This chapter examines the complexity of polling data reliability and interpretation, particularly in the context of different modeling and aggregation methods. It highlights the challenges of accurately capturing voter sentiment, especially among various demographic groups such as African-American and Hispanic voters, and critiques the historical overconfidence in polling models observed in the 2016 and 2020 elections. The discussion emphasizes the need for cautious analysis of polling methodologies to improve accuracy in political forecasts.
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