Why Bitcoin Disappointed in 2025

The Last Trade: Tad Smith unpacks why Bitcoin’s “disappointing” 2025 might be the perfect setup, how gold and sovereign flows are quietly rewriting the sound money playbook, and what AI, labor shocks, and Fed policy mean for younger generations staring at a broken system and a massive opportunity.

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🎙️ About This Episode

With returning guest Tad Smith (former public-company CEO and NYU Stern professor), we zoom out on Bitcoin’s “underwhelming” 2025: why sentiment feels terrible at ~91K, how expectations got ahead of reality, and why he likes the current setup precisely because narrative and positioning look so weak. Tad contrasts gold’s structural central-bank bid with Bitcoin’s emerging endowment and sovereign bid, digs into Harvard vs Abu Dhabi’s BTC motives, and explains what it means when elite institutions are willing to take reputational risk just to get exposure.

From there, we walk through the Fed’s recent cuts, balance sheet “relief,” and the slow-motion regime shift heading into 2026—arguing that liquidity and policy, not a mystical four-year cycle, drive BTC. Then Tad delivers a blunt generational autopsy on debt, housing, and student loans, lays out how AI really threatens white-collar labor, and sketches the likely path to “soft UBI” through more generous existing programs. We close on optimism: why this is still the best time in history to be young and high-agency, how CEOs are actually using AI to reshape labor and productivity, and how Tad rebuilt his NYU Stern course so AI is a required superpower instead of a banned shortcut.

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 – Introduction, Tad’s Return & Market Overview

02:42 – Bitcoin’s 2025 Performance and “Disappointing” Sentiment

06:53 – Narratives in Non-Yielding Assets: Bitcoin vs. Gold

08:50 – Harvard, Abu Dhabi & Quiet Institutional Bitcoin Allocations

12:18 – Central Banks Buying Gold and the Emerging Sovereign/Endowment BTC Bid

21:39 – Federal Reserve Rate Cuts, Balance Sheet “Relief,” and Liquidity Shift

32:02 – The Treasury–Fed Relationship and the Myth of Full Independence

37:10 – AI’s Impact on the Labor Market and Career Paths for the Young

38:39 – Generational Accountability: Debt, Housing, and a Rigged Starting Line

42:26 – AI, Job Displacement, and the Road to “Soft UBI”

44:47 – Agency, Entrepreneurship, and Opportunity in a Changing Economy

49:56 – Education in the AI Era: Bans, Blue Books, and Missed Opportunities

01:05:25 – Inside Tad’s NYU Course: Requiring AI and Redesigning the Classroom

01:11:55 – Optimism for the Future: Bitcoin, AI, and Personal Responsibility

01:13:14 – Outro and Disclaimer

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