SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski
Top Traders Unplugged
Differing Perspectives on Europe's Economy and Inflation Levels
Mario Drucker and Jerome Powell discuss their contrasting views on Europe's economy, inflation levels, and the implications for investors in the current macro environment.
Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?
04:24 - A precursor for the conversation
05:21 - Industry performance update
07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective
11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"
16:06 - The results of the paper
21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference
24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted
26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?
33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?
35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?
37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change
42:52 - Different people, different perspectives
46:39 - Doing what happens next
48:12 - Best practices when analyzing the data
54:54 - Thanks for listening
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