How to Create a Helpful Macro Forecast

In this memo you really dive into why it's so difficult to create one of those helpful macro forecasts. Think about the things that have created the mackro environment in the last two plus years. You had the pendemic, which nobody predicted. The invasion of ukrane, which until the last minute people were saying, will he or won't we? We have the fed and treasury reaction to the pandemic, or the recession introduced by the pandemic. And idon't remember reading anybody who fully anticipated the massive extent to which that rescue programme would work. If i were in the forecasting business, i think that would be enough to make me stop.