Trump's Middle East Effectiveness and Limits

Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul joins Chuck Todd for a sweeping conversation about whether the world is slipping back into a pre–World War II world order marked by isolationism, power struggles, and a fading commitment to democracy. McFaul argues we’ve entered a new era of great power competition, with China offering an alternative world order and America retreating from its role as the global stabilizer. The two discuss how Trump’s “strong vs. weak” worldview reshapes alliances, why autocracy is gaining ideological ground inside the U.S., and what happens when America stops believing in exporting democracy.

From the growing unity of the European Union post-Ukraine to Taiwan’s fears of being sold out to Beijing, Todd and McFaul explore whether it will take another crisis to “sober up” American politics. They also debate Trump’s paradoxical legacy — destabilizing allies while showing skill in Middle East negotiations — and what kind of leadership it will take to rebuild collective security and moral credibility in an increasingly unstable world.

Timeline:

00:00 Michael McFaul joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Are we in a similar set of conditions to pre-WW2?

02:00 We’ve entered a new era of great power competition

03:15 In some ways we’re in a cold war, in some way we’re not

04:00 Our economy is highly intertwined with China’s

04:45 America’s isolationism similar to 1930’s

07:00 Was the cold war an outlier period for American & world history?

08:30 Everyone understood the USSR as an adversary during cold war

09:15 America was the great power during cold war, underestimated ourselves

10:15 The “law of the jungle” is returning as the US retreats from the world

12:00 No unity around “small d”  Democracy in America, can’t export it

13:15 Trump defines the world by “strong leaders vs. weak leaders”

14:15 Trump’s style of diplomacy works in middle east, not with allies

15:30 China is another hegemon, and offering a different world order

16:30 Autocrats vs Democrats fight is between countries & domestic

17:45 Many Americans now closer to Putin ideologically than Democrats

19:15 Venezuelan activist wins Nobel, her message to Trump was brilliant

20:15 We should have done more to help democracy in Venezuela

23:00 Trump shut down NGOs that promote democracy on world stage

23:45 America needs to run a better pro-democracy campaign worldwide

24:30 America’s security arrangement w/Europe was working well

25:45 Something bad will have to happen to sober up American politics

28:30 There’s a fear of debate in American politics & on campuses

30:15 The importance of debate on college campuses

32:45 The EU has gathered collective strength as America retreats

33:45 Russia invasion of Ukraine + Reelection of Trump recalibrated Europe

35:45 Europe has gained unity and clarity

37:15 Trump deserves credit for trying to end the Russia/Ukraine war

39:00 How will the great power conflict play out in Asia

40:30 We need more alliances and collective security in Asia to counter China

41:15 Taiwan is nervous the US will sell them out to China

42:00 Invasion of Taiwan might be the event to wake up the west

42:45 Trump’s skill set is uniquely suited to negotiations in middle east

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