Dr. Peter Berezin is the Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research at BCA Research, the largest Canadian investment research firm. He’s known for his macroeconomics research reports and his frequent appearances on Bloomberg and CNBC.
Notably, Peter is one of the only macroeconomists in the world who’s forecasting AI doom! He recently published a research report estimating a “ more than 50/50 chance AI will wipe out all of humanity by the middle of the century”.
00:00 Introducing Peter Berezin
01:59 Peter’s Economic Predictions and Track Record
05:50 Investment Strategies and Beating the Market
17:47 The Future of Human Employment
26:40 Existential Risks and the Doomsday Argument
34:13 What’s Your P(Doom)™
39:18 Probability of non-AI Doom
44:19 Solving Population Decline
50:53 Constraining AI Development
53:40 The Multiverse and Its Implications
01:01:11 Are Other Economists Crazy?
01:09:19 Mathematical Universe and Multiverse Theories
01:19:43 Epistemic vs. Physical Probability
01:33:19 Reality Fluid
01:39:11 AI and Moral Realism
01:54:18 The Simulation Hypothesis and God
02:10:06 Liron’s Post-Show
Show Notes
Peter’s Twitter: https://x.com/PeterBerezinBCA
Peter’s old blog — https://stockcoach.blogspot.com
Peter’s 2021 BCA Research Report: “Life, Death and Finance in the Cosmic Multiverse” — https://www.bcaresearch.com/public/content/GIS_SR_2021_12_21.pdf
M.C. Escher’s “Circle Limit IV” — https://www.escherinhetpaleis.nl/escher-today/circle-limit-iv-heaven-and-hell/
Zvi Mowshowitz’s Blog (Liron’s recommendation for best AI news & analysis) — https://thezvi.substack.com
My Doom Debates episode about why nuclear proliferation is bad — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueB9iRQsvQ8
Robin Hanson’s “Mangled Worlds” paper — https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/mangledworlds.html
Uncontrollable by Darren McKee (Liron’s recommended AI x-risk book) — https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CNNYKVH1
Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligence
PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info
Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
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