Nothing leads to success like unshakeable faith in one big idea. Past performance increases confidence more than ability. There are two types of successful people, those with imposter syndrome and sociopaths. The bust is only dangerous if you depend on the boom. Everybody will pay you back in equal proportion to your delusion. People tend to be obsessed with harm posed by others while oblivious to much greater self-inflicted harms such as poor diet and no exercise. We underestimate the importance of control.