Australia and China - What's Next?

Taiwan represents possibly the most intractable issue in international affairs, but also one of the most important. Arguably, no theory or opinion on the biggest questions Australian foreign policy can be complete, or maybe even credible, until it grapples with the Taiwan issue. And so on this episode Allan and Darren use the occasion of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to the island to sort through their views.

Be warned, this is a long and wonkish episode! But more so than perhaps anything else discussed on the podcast, Taiwan requires the time and space to lay out one’s views and have them challenged.

The episode concludes with a quick update on Australia-China relations, given the Chinese Ambassador’s recent speech at the National Press Club.

We bid farewell Annabel Howard and thank her so much for all her help, and welcome Atikah Mekki and thank her for audio editing today, and thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

James Fearon, “Rationalist explanations for war”, International Organization, Volume 49 Issue 3 (1995): https://web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-research/cgi-bin/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Rationalist-Explanations-for-War.pdf

Hugh White, “Sleepwalk to War: Australia's Unthinking Alliance with America”, Quarterly Essay, 27 June 2022: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/sleepwalk-war

Michael Beckley, Zack Cooper, and Allison Schwartz, “Deterring Coercion and Conflict Across the Taiwan Strait”, American Enterprise Institute: https://www.defendingtaiwan.com/deterring-coercion-and-conflict-across-the-taiwan-strait/

James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, “Taiwan’s Navy: Able to Deny Command of the Sea?”, China Brief Volume 10, Issue 8 (2010): https://jamestown.org/program/taiwans-navy-able-to-deny-command-of-the-sea/

Bonnie Glaser and Zack Cooper, “Nancy Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Is Too Dangerous” New York Times, 28 July 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/china-us-taiwan-pelosi.html

Ben Herscovitch, “Australia’s shifting statements on Taiwan, China’s changed tone, and coal exports”, Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter), 4 August 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias-shifting-statements-on

Ambassador Xiao Qian, Ambassador of the People's Republic of China, Speech to National Press Club (video), 10 August 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXeHRtmWJ68

China's ambassador to Australia addresses National Press Club ⁠— as it happened (Live Blog), ABC News, 10 August 2022: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/live-updates-xiao-qian-addresses-national-press-club/101318252

Ben Herscovitch, “Beijing (re)embraces one-China disinformation plus aggregate leader-level meetings”, Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter), 31 August 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/beijing-reembraces-one-china-disinformation

Gatra Priyandita, Dirk Van Der Kley and Ben Herscovitch, “Localization and China’s Tech Success in Indonesia”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 July 2022: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/11/localization-and-china-s-tech-success-in-indonesia-pub-87477

Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (Hachette, 2022): https://www.hachette.com.au/kevin-rudd/the-avoidable-war-the-dangers-of-a-catastrophic-conflict-between-the-us-and-xi-jinpings-china

Jessica Chen Weiss, “The China Trap: US foreign policy and the perilous logic of zero-sum competition”, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-trap-us-foreign-policy-zero-sum-competition

The Sandman (TV): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81150303