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More or Less: Behind the Stats
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The Bank of England's Overestimation of Inflation
The persistence of inflation in the economy has taken us and many others by surprise. By their own admission, the bank has consistently underestimated what inflation will be. In May this year, it thought it would be 8.2%. So, it's already 0.5% points or half a percent out. When they forecast in February this year, they thought that in March, inflation would be 9.2%, but it came out at 10.1%. These are not huge errors in the short term, but it is only a short term forecast,. They're consistently over-optimistic.
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