Impacts of Trade Policies and Geopolitical Tensions on Market Outlook

Yesterday’s US data flurry gave hints about trade tax effects. Headline retail sales were weakened by poor auto sales. Some consumers bought cars early, anticipating trade taxes, and so did not show up at car dealerships in May. Import prices rose, suggesting that foreign companies were not absorbing trade taxes (so US companies and consumers will pay). Japan’s May trade data did show a 4.7% m/m drop in passenger car export prices, suggesting Japan’s automakers were absorbing some of the tariffs. Only auto prices showed this shift, which should appear in June’s US import price data.