How Do You Think the C Ia Does Against Tetlock Super Forecasters?

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Bensig: Why doesn't the c i a use prediction markets more? Even just internal markets? You could do them with chits. You could do it with real money, vouchers in the cafeteria. The winner gets a place in the c i a museum. Whatever you want to do. Well, thes different ty of quantitative models that are used at the c i a to see if they could forecast certain outcomes on certain situations. But i would never tell s analists to put their eggs in one type of basket. As far as forecasting, people think, youknow, what's the prediction of something? Eterm ina prediction. It's looking at what are those variables...

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Growing up in a working-class city in New Jersey, John Brennan’s father was an Irish immigrant who always impressed upon his children how grateful they should be to be American citizens. That deeply-instilled patriotism and the sense of right and wrong emphasized by his Catholic upbringing would lead John first to become an intelligence officer and then eventually Director of the CIA. His new memoir, which Tyler found substantive on every page, recounts that career journey.

John joined Tyler to discuss what working in intelligence taught him about people’s motivations, how his Catholic upbringing prepared him for working in intelligence, the similarities between working at the CIA and entering the priesthood, his ability to synthetize information from disparate sources, his assessment on the possibility of alien life, the efficacy of personality tests and polygraphs, why CIA agents are so punctual, how the CIA plans to remain a competitive recruiter for top talent, the challenges that spouses and family members of intelligence workers face, the impact of modern technology on spycraft, why he doesn’t support the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, his favorite parts of Cairo, the pros and cons of the recent Middle Eastern peace deal brokered by Jared Kushner, the reasons he thinks we should leverage American culture more abroad, JFK conspiracy theories, why there seemed to be much less foreign interference in the 2020 election than experts predicted, what John le Carré got right about being a spy, why most spies aren’t like James Bond, what he would change about FISA courts, and more.

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Recorded November 16th, 2020 Other ways to connect

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