#54: Tian Yang On The Virtues Of Variant Perception Versus Unconscious Conformity
Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom
Is There a Recession in the Business Cycle?
Wyatt: Each of these things in isolation has less value than when you kind of put them together. We have essentially a one zero regime shift, where things are modelled as a jump process. The key thing to mention is that the analysis o this is very difficult because so much economic datu is revised often heavily. So we can have, weall, we'll see if, if it proves to be true. Am I right? Wyndham's Recession model nearly hasn't quite jumped yet, right? But th the risk is probably around 20 to 30% depending on what day you look at it, but it's kind of knoct over the threshold.
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