A lot of the time we design our strategies in life around these likely outcomes. But it's important to incorporate these tale outcomes because they can have such a substantial impact on the results. The best strategy is actually not to identify what the tales are, but to position a strategy so that you are set up no matter what the tales end up being.
In this episode, Cal and Steph discuss the hidden side of risk: the infrequent, often unpredictable events that make the biggest differences in our lives.
If you look around, rare, high-impact events are everywhere.
- A small number of days in the stock market drive the bulk of the returns.
- Large businesses like Google, Amazon, and Best Buy have tested thousands of products, yet have a single profit puppy.
- Insurance companies make money on most customers, but have to pay out very large claims to a few people.
- A handful of people have had more of an effect on the future than the other 7 billion people combined.
This episode is all about navigating tail risk and tail opportunity. You'll learn how to better avoid the catastrophic events in life, and on the flip side, to take advantage of the life-enhancing opportunities with asymmetric upside.
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