What Is the Best Recession Indicator?

November figures accelerated to 6.1%. You know that's 50% higher than the pre COVID trend so we've got the feds got a lot of hate a bell in terms of creating slack in the labor market and it doesn't stop there. We actually get data straight from the government in terms of nominal employee compensation by the BEA in the PC report that we get to the end of every month. And then for our customers on slide 24 we show the three month 10 year yield curve which only recently inverted in late October. What we find is that you know on a zero to six month forward interval basis there's a 0% chance of being in recession from the inversion of the