What's the Single Best Indicator for How the Economy Is Doing?

Economists are trained to think about what might go wrong, but the distribution of risks is often pretty symmetric. And so as I look forward, I reckon there's a 50% chance loss is gonna be better than we think and 40% chance it's gonna be worse. The fact that I actually think about that optimistic, 50 makes me more optimistic than most people. So I'm not saying it won't be a recession, but there's lots of reasons to suspect they might not be.