TikTok Will Beat Amazon, Google Is Going to Zero, and Other Wild Predictions With VC Turner Novak
Run the Numbers
Navigating New Startup Landscapes
This chapter explores the shifting dynamics of startup distribution as traditional platforms close and OpenAI takes a central role. It reflects on personal experiences in finance and accounting while proposing innovative strategies for integrating media with business to enhance growth.
Facebook is undermonetized, TikTok poses an existential threat to Amazon, and ChatGPT has probably already captured most of Google’s high-value users. These are the opinions of today's guest, a venture capitalist deeply embedded in consumer networks and social product investing. In this episode, CJ chats with Turner Novak, the Founder and Managing Partner of Banana Capital, host of The Peel podcast, and a man who is known for his Twitter threads and podcast interviews as much as he is for his impressive portfolio. Turner breaks down the monetization models of some of the world's biggest platforms. Together, they discuss undervalued and overvalued business models, the long-term viability of subscription models, how platforms can identify and serve their highest-value users, and how to adapt acquisition strategies as AI reshapes the customer journey. Turner also reveals what excites him for future investments and the underestimated power of memes as a marketing tool.
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LINKS:
Turner Novak on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak
Turner Novak on X (@TurnerNovak): https://x.com/TurnerNovak
Banana Capital:
https://www.bananacapital.vc
The Peel: https://www.youtube.com/@ThePeelPod
thespl.it:
CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222
Mostly metrics:
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Preview and Intro
(02:09) Sponsor – Rillet | Pulley | Brex
(06:15) Turner’s Embarrassing Accounting Story
(08:10) How Turner Became an Accidental Influencer
(09:02) Monetizing Content
(12:22) How Turner Built His Media Platform
(16:02) Sponsor – Aleph | RightRev | Navan
(20:26) From Fantasy VC Portfolios to Podcasting
(24:30) Turner’s Main Business: Media Versus VC
(25:42) Monetizing Premium Experiences on Social Products
(30:27) Finding and Targeting High-Value Customers
(32:27) Memes as a Tool for Marketing
(36:10) Identifying High-Value Users and Opportunities
(41:00) Why Pinterest Is Undermonetized
(42:57) TikTok Versus Amazon for E-Commerce
(46:30) Is ChatGPT Coming for Facebook and Google’s Cash Flow
(48:36) Facebook as an Undermonetized Business
(54:24) The Long-Term Viability of Subscriptions
(1:00:31) Customer Acquisition in a Platform-Dominated World
(1:04:09) Paid Acquisition in the Era of AI
(1:06:23) The Increasing Cost of CAC
(1:08:59) What Turner Is Investing in Now
(1:15:25) Doing Hard Things as a Moat
(1:19:12) Wrap
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#VentureCapital #BusinessModels #GoogleVsChatGPT #ConsumerNetworks #SocialCommerce
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