The Tenyer Two Year Spread

Yields on ten year treasuries were zooming up throughout 20 22. The reason, i think, for the increase in yields was because of price inflation. That people thought all the fet is going to let the economy run hot for longer than we thought six months ago. Even when this seeled curve goes negative or inverts, it doesn't mean t there's a recession officially. Isli once we go down through history and then look back in terms, when they officially date the recession, probably it would begin some point, eight months to whatever, a year and change after that inversion happens.