What Is the Difference Between an Ergotic and a Non Argotic System?

An ergotic system is one in which the forward distribution of returns is functionally indistinguishable from the past distribution of returns over an extended period of time. Perfect examples of this are roulette wheels or black jack games, where the probability of pulling out a royal flush from an undisturbed deck is always the same. Markets can't be run in reverse and people who live a thousand different lifetimes are going to have very different experiences than a thousand people who had the same lifetime. The simple fact is, we don't know that about markets. And it becomes hugely important when more than a hundred % of the incremental capital makes those assumptions.