Rationality And Its Opposite — Steven Pinker
The Joe Walker Podcast
Do Tetlock's Super Forecasters Work in Large Worlds?
The world is complex, there are multiple contingencies and no one but God knows the ball. It can be foolish to act as if you know all of the relevant probabilities when the world is just too complex to allow them to be estimated. The fact that it does turn out correctly at a greater rate than chance shows that we're not just throwing darts.
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