What's the Probability of Breakage?

Ifo am old enough that have read an awful lot of investment books. And i really like o financial shenanigans by shillettwih went through all the stuffthat we found out. There's his book by didier sornett, called why stock markets crash. It's interesting because didie sornett is a material scientist and so he talks about a, reaching critical, a critical breaking points in materials. Ad the bottom line is, you never know exactly when, if you start to to bend a a stick, you don't know exactly when that stick is going to break.