The Psychology of Speculation in Modern Markets

Eugene Wei (Website, X) is a writer, product thinker, and cultural observer best known for his essays on technology, media, and social networks, including Status as a Service, Invisible asymptotes, and TikTok and the Sorting Hat.

Eugene spent seven years at Amazon in its early days before following a brief detour to pursue filmmaking at UCLA. He then led product, design, editorial, and marketing teams at Hulu, co-founded Erly, and worked at Flipboard and Oculus. Today, he works on his own ideas at the intersection of media and technology while advising and angel investing.

This conversation explores the evolving landscape of entertainment, social media, community, and humanity in our digital age—topics Eugene has examined deeply. We revisit some of Eugene’s greatest hits on how platforms like Twitter and TikTok shape society and also get into fresh ideas he's yet to share publicly.

We start by discussing how today's social media world compares to the television-centric world that Neil Postman lamented in Amusing Ourselves to Death, and how entertainment-maximizing, adversarial, algorithmic social platforms might lead us to "Amusing Each Other to Death." Eugene unpacks TikTok's profound impact on our "digital nervous system," differentiating between social networks and social media—highlighting the latter's emphasis on frictionless positivity rather than meaningful connection.

Amid rising nihilism among young people, Eugene analyzes how cultural and economic structures contribute to lost hope, exploring social media’s role in exacerbating these trends. We discuss power laws influencing tech, media, sports, and finance, and how that drives pervasive speculation across culture. Then, he traces these themes through American television, from 1960s-1990s sitcoms to shows like The Sopranos, Succession, and Industry, revealing how they reflect the erosion of community and purpose in late-stage capitalism.

Throughout, Eugene offers nuanced observations on how technology's removal of friction has paradoxically weakened our sense of meaning and connection. We wrap up with how AI might shape media and creativity, what elements of humanity may be valued in the future, learnings from Bezos and film school, and a movie recommendation for anyone trying to make sense of it all.

Timestamps

• (02:10): Amusing Each Other to Death and "Frictionless Positivity": Neil Postman, TV vs. Social Media
• (14:35): Dunking, Quote Tweets, and Proximity to the Other
• (19:09): Prisoner's Dilemma of Twitter: Concede or Dunk
• (24:52): Is TikTok the Final Form of Social Media?
• (31:02): Status Games in the Algorithm Era
• (39:02): Technology's Reduction of Friction & Avoiding Confrontation with the Other
• (48:45): The Internet's Reversal of Vita Activa and Vita Contempliva
• (50:53): Growing Nihilism Toward Online Status Games: If You Don't Capture Attention, You Aren't Relevant Anymore
• (55:54): Late State Capitalism's Disappointment, Gen Z Nihilism in US and China, Death of Community
• (1:03:01): Speculation Culture and Playing to the Power Law
• (1:08:08): NBA, NFL, Netflix, Power Laws, and Distraction-Friendly Viewing
• (1:15:55): Playing for Attention: the Only Goal
• (1:18:43): Video and Image vs. Text
• (1:20:57): The Subconscious of American Culture and the Decline of Community According
• (1:32:31): Terminally Online Culture, Role Models, Evolving Search for Meaning
• (1:45:23): Friction and the Internet's Impact on Communities
• (1:50:50): AI, "The Most Human Human" and Creativity
• (1:56:38): Lighting section: Invisible Asymptotes for Social Media and Eugene, and Writing
• (2:02:08): Beginner's Mindset, Film School, What Technologists Could Learn from Filmmakers
• (2:06:40): What Idea from a Book Would Be Most Compelling to "Transmute" into an Audiovisual Medium?
• (2:08:56): Bezos and Removing Friction
• (2:11:09): Left Brain vs. Right Brain, Engineering Problems vs. Human Problems
• (2:15:07): Why Film is Meaningful and a Recommendation

Episode transcript⁠ with all linked references: