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Is a Policy Rate Pivot Coming?
Two year treasury yield against the federal funds rate, upper bound. Fed pauses its hike cycle every time two year yield falls below fed funds rate. When it becomes a precipitous fall belowFed rates, then they're forced to pivot their hiking cycle in the other direction. We don't view that it's likely but we are taking a look at this as of right now and think te september could be the last hike before a pause.
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