Rational soothsaying
Think with Pinker
How to Measure the Accuracy of Predictions
Super forecasters are scored based on the degree to which their probability prediction matches reality. The advantage of this rewards a forecaster not just for getting the odds right, that is, it rains on 80 % of the days in which he says the chance of rain is 80%. So how do we measure his accuracy? Glen brier suggested that we should look at a set of forecasts and average the differences between each forecast in probability and the actual outcome. To be precise the mean squared error of the forecasts.
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