Rational soothsaying
Think with Pinker
00:00
How to Measure the Accuracy of Predictions
Super forecasters are scored based on the degree to which their probability prediction matches reality. The advantage of this rewards a forecaster not just for getting the odds right, that is, it rains on 80 % of the days in which he says the chance of rain is 80%. So how do we measure his accuracy? Glen brier suggested that we should look at a set of forecasts and average the differences between each forecast in probability and the actual outcome. To be precise the mean squared error of the forecasts.
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