AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
5min chapter
Rational soothsaying
Think with Pinker
How to Measure the Accuracy of Predictions
Super forecasters are scored based on the degree to which their probability prediction matches reality. The advantage of this rewards a forecaster not just for getting the odds right, that is, it rains on 80 % of the days in which he says the chance of rain is 80%. So how do we measure his accuracy? Glen brier suggested that we should look at a set of forecasts and average the differences between each forecast in probability and the actual outcome. To be precise the mean squared error of the forecasts.
00:00
Transcript
Episode notes
Get the Snipd
podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any
moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share
& Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode