2min chapter

The Macro Trading Floor cover image

Are You Paying Attention to Emerging Markets? | Nick Stadtmiller

The Macro Trading Floor

CHAPTER

Is This a Soft Landing?

If you're assigning higher probability of a soft landing, anyo of youre pricing implied volatility across ase classes to come down. And you're seeing all the negative carrying trades getting slammed on their back big times. You start from kur flatners, the negative carry and the curve is steepening back. But for cue three, the market is basically allowed to party like there's no to morrow due to this rebound in nominal growth relative to inflation. The next su to drop is that nominal growth will suffer big time in cue four, no matter what inflation does. So i'm still in the camp that this is not not a soft landing.

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