Investing in the Capital Cycle

Russell Napier of Orlock Advisors joins Jack Farley to share lessons from his experience as an financial analyst in Hong Kong during the Asian Financial Crisis. Napier notes that during the bull market in Asian equities of the first half of the 1990s, analysts attributed the boom to the high rates of economic growth in much of Asia. However, Napier tells Farley that the true cause of the dramatic bull market was the multitude of pegged exchange rates that did not allow Asian currencies to strengthen as foreign capital flowed in, boosting liquidity conditions.

However, once the tide of foreign capital reversed course, the “Asian miracle” became a nightmare.

Napier is the author of “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-98: Birth of the Age of Debt.” https://www.libraryofmistakes.com/

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