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Prediction Market FAQ

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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How Can Prediction Markets Give Rich People More Power?

The predicted market on the presidential election has a volume of about $600,000. If you were going to murder someone to profit off a market, who would you rather kill? A US politician or a Fortune 500 CEO whose companies might have market caps in the hundreds of billions. The markets implicit chance of global warming down to 1%. That means, if there is global warming, you could multiply your money by 100 times by buying yes. My $10,000 isn't going to be enough to fully move this market all the way back. We already said the rich person spent $100 million manipulating it. These reasons apply to rich people too.

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