The Importance of Precision in Betting

If you had bet, Kelly Stakeen at 10%, you probably would have ended up maybe going busto a little bit faster. I think this implication that every game was 10% is like fully incorrect. But if the market priced it at the 13 and a half, anyone in the entire world had a chance to move that number either way. That's why I think people value the market so much is the best we have. It's an unbelievably useful heuristic to believe that it's always right.

Transcript

Play full episode

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!

Get the app