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Michael Pettis: China's Economic Growth Model Is Dying
Forward Guidance
The Effect of Investment on Economic Growth
At least two dozen countries have followed this model. And very conveniently, they all do the same thing. Brazil was growing so rapidly that it was the first country that I can find to be called an economic miracle. Then you have a period of very rapid growth where suddenly debt explodes before that debt is contained. It's only after that that debt explodes. China could transfer about 1 to 1.5% of GDP every year from governments to the household sector. That would really drag down local growth around 4%. But at least in theory, right?
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