The Power of Probabilistic Investing

I think that investing is more about now casting than forecasting. It's not about getting what happens next year and positioning for it now. It's about recognising the signs when a regime is changing and gradually repositioning at those turning points. And I do think we are in this new regime that we're on the panel together a while back that I'm calling spikeflation. That does mean more years when you need to have diversification into things like commodities. More need to be a business cycle investor because if you get inflation spikes, you get short rates going up and you get recessions more often.