How Trump Has Fractured Republican Coalitions

On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck looks at new polling showing just how unsettled Americans feel heading into yet another potential government shutdown. With 93% of the country agreeing that political violence is a problem and a majority believing we’re in a full-blown political crisis, partisanship has hardened to the point where disagreement itself is seen as betrayal. Chuck traces how government shutdowns—once unheard of before 1980—became a recurring political weapon, thanks to Justice Department rulings, congressional maneuvering, and laws that reduced the political pain by exempting things like military pay and Social Security. The result: contractors left stranded, bipartisanship all but eliminated, and a system designed to fail.

Then, veteran journalist for The Economist, James Bennet joins Chuck to break down Donald Trump’s scathing U.N. speech and what it reveals about his worldview: not isolationist, but relentlessly self-centered, with his personal interest framed as national interest. Bennet warns that Trump’s grip on power is existential for him and his administration, and if institutions like the Supreme Court allow unchecked presidential firings, the rule of law itself could unravel. From the Cold War’s stabilizing influence to the fractures of today’s four-party system crammed into two, Bennet and Chuck explore whether America can navigate its political turmoil without mass violence, and how drone warfare, refugee flows, and the collapse of the international rules-based order are reshaping global politics.

The conversation also turns inward, examining how journalism has struggled to adapt in the Trump era. Bennet reflects on writing for international audiences, the dangers of catering to niche media bubbles, and why legacy outlets must rediscover local reporting. He argues that deplatforming Trump was a massive mistake that accelerated the collapse of resistance, while public pressure against platforming controversial voices continues to erode open debate. From Biden’s misunderstood mandate to the Senate’s paralysis and the rise of cult-of-personality politics, this episode considers what reforms will be necessary both in government and in journalism.

Finally, Chuck takes a trip in the ToddCast Time Machine to 1974, when congress gave the Freedom of Information Act teeth, plus answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction 

06:00 New polling out leading into potential government shutdown

07:00 93% of the country believe political violence is a problem

08:00 Majority of the country believes we’re in a “political crisis”

09:00 Democrats less likely to talk politics across the aisle

10:30 Partisans believe you’re on “the other side’’ if you don’t agree with them

12:45 People need to feel secure in having political debate

14:00 Independent voters are disenfranchised relative to D & R voters

16:15 Before 1980 America never had a government shutdown

17:30 Two Justice Department opinions created the legal basis for shutdowns

20:00 Government shutdown threats are now an annual occurrence

21:15 Two laws passed to make political cost of a shutdown less painful

22:45 Exemptions for military pay and social security make shutdowns easier

23:45 Proposals for automatic government funding haven’t passed

26:15 Government contractors can’t work under shutdowns or CR’s

27:30 Politicians deliberately created the conditions that lead to shutdowns

28:45 Congressional leadership wanted to create artificial leverage

30:00 The incentive structures for bipartisan compromise are gone

32:30 Congress had the power to deal with shutdowns and didn’t

35:00 James Bennet joins the Chuck ToddCast 

36:30 Trump scolds other nations in scathing U.N. speech 

37:30 Trump behaved like Hugo Chavez in U.N. speech 

38:45 Trump is not an isolationist, but it's all centered around him 

39:30 Trump sees his interest as the national interest 

41:15 How alarmed should we be? 

42:15 Things have gotten pretty dark in the past two weeks 

43:00 Staying in power is existential for Trump & his administration 

44:30 If you lose the rule of law, you lose the country 

45:15 If SCOTUS allows fed firing, there's no going back 

46:00 John Roberts desperate to avoid constitutional showdown 

47:30 Government will require major reform after Trump 

50:00 The cold war was a stabilizing force in American politics 

52:00 America is a four party system crammed into two parties 

54:00 Public sentiment has been pessimistic the entire 21st century 

55:45 Can we get through this without mass violence? 

57:30 It's hard to imagine a productive modern constitutional convention 

59:00 The last "protectionist race" led to a world war 

1:00:15 We're no longer living in the international rules based order 

1:01:30 Drones are massively changing the dynamics of warfare 

1:03:00 Refugee flows are causing political instability worldwide 

1:03:30 Trump has no interest in leading internationally 

1:05:00 Trump is constantly campaigning and only for his base 

1:07:00 Did we export our politics to Israel, or the other way around? 

1:08:45 Only Obama had a majority of the vote in the 21st century 

1:09:45 Governors are the only politicians that campaign beyond their base 

1:12:00 Biden misunderstood his 2020 mandate and overreached 

1:13:30 Who is the Economist reader? 

1:15:30 Writing about American politics for an international audience 

1:17:30 If you had more resources, what would you focus on covering? 

1:18:30 Legacy media needs to give more attention beyond D.C. and NYC 

1:20:00 Need to find a new model in order to bring back local journalism 

1:22:45 There's too many journalists in D.C. and not enough in America 

1:24:30 Journalism now caters to niche audiences 

1:26:15 Deplatforming Trump was a massive mistake 

1:27:00 Once ABC caved in lawsuit, resistance to Trump collapsed 

1:29:00 Public pressures journalists to not platform people they disagree with 

1:30:00 Michael Bennet was consensus candidate to replace Schumer 

1:31:45 Nothing gets done in the senate, many senators leaving 

1:35:15 In the TV era, successful presidents have had cults of personality 

1:36:15 Newsom having success emulating Trump's style

1:39:00 The ToddCast Time Machine 

1:39:30 October 5th, 1974 Congress put teeth in the Freedom of Information Act 

1:41:00 Cheney and Rumsfeld argued transparency would hurt national security 

1:41:30 Lawmakers overruled the presidential veto 

1:43:30 Florida has some of the strongest government transparency laws 

1:44:15 Multiple states created their own transparency laws after FOIA 

1:45:30 Pentagon demanded restrictions on journalists, no outlets agree 

1:47:30 We can't have a democracy without transparency 

1:50:15 When your party is out of power you're more likely to believe nonsense 

1:51:30 Ask Chuck 

1:51:45 Parallels between LDS church in UT & OK nearly becoming a black state? 

1:54:30 Chances the Republican gerrymanders backfire? 

1:59:15 How can Americans abroad stay civically engaged and bring about change? 

2:04:15 Where do you get your optimism from in this political climate?

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