The Uncertainty of Climate Change

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There's a lot of uncertainty that makes me feel no better about climate change. I mean, maybe they're not over-sitting the knowledge we have. A lot of them are rich and in Fortran, they're kind of sketchy. There could be just assumptions baked into that that we don't realize are faulty assumptions or missing important dynamics. So when you add up all those factors, there is more uncertainty than is generally stated about the models.

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What are "shed" and "cake" projects? And how can you avoid "shed" projects? What is the "jobs to be done" framework? What is the "theory of change" framework? How can people use statistics (or statistical intuition) in everyday life? How accurate are climate change models? How much certainty do scientists have about climate change outcomes? What are some promising strategies for mitigating and reversing climate change?

Cassandra Xia (@CassandraXia) is the creator of Adventures in Cognitive Biases and co-founder of the non-profit Work on Climate. She is fascinated by how human biases affect the actions we take as a society and how to hack human psychology to get the change that we want. She is previously affiliated with the MIT Media Lab, MIT CS department, and Google AI. More of Cassandra's work can be found at cassandraxia.com and workonclimate.org.

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