The Scarcity of Metals

Simon challenged Erlich to specify any resources he was confident would run out or become much scarcer over any period longer than a year. Each of the five metals specified were cheaper in real terms by the end of the period. The reason that the price of all these metals dropped is that their scarcity is relative, not absolute. They are scarce to us because the time and resources required to produce them must be diverted away from the production of other resources. Simon understood that as the human population increased and demand for these metals increase, these metals would have more resources directed toward their production.