Second-Order Consequences and Policy Myopia

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Senior Editor Michael Feinberg and Foreign Policy Editor Dana Stuster for a little chat with the guys about the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “Minding Your Bs and Ts.” President Trump arrived in China this week alongside top U.S. officials and business executives for a much-anticipated summit with President Xi Jinping. U.S. diplomats hope the summit will revolve around the “five Bs”—meaning U.S. beef, soybeans, Boeing airplanes, and proposed boards for investment and trade—while Chinese officials want to talk about the “three Ts” of Taiwan, technology, and tariffs. What should our expectations be for the summit? And how much will the Iran war loom over the negotiations?
• “Crude Awakening.” This past week, negotiations between Iran and the United States appeared to reach a standstill, without any movement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or restoring the flow of oil and other goods that have driven crude oil prices to record highs. As each side seems poised to wait out the other, how long can they last before having to capitulate (or escalate)? And what do these dynamics mean for this war of attrition? 
• “Cartel Blanche.” On Tuesday, CNN reported that the CIA has been conducting a covert campaign of assassinations in Mexico targeting mid-level members of the country’s drug cartels. Despite these reports—and the Trump administration’s longstanding claims that it is at “war” with the cartels—both the Mexican government and CIA have denied any involvement in these operations. What does this say about the Trump administration’s plans for future counter-narcotics operations? And the broader U.S.-Mexico relationship?

In object lessons, Dana stresses that the key to a successful marriage—at least in his case—is a good microphone. Mike stresses that misery loves company, and despite the possible threat to his own marital bliss, contemplates a date night to AFI Silver’s Bleak Week. And Scott stresses that Lawfare does not exist without the support of listeners like you. Please consider contributing to our spring fundraising drive with a personally meaningful gift at lawfaremedia.org/support.

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