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The US commodities super cycle takes off in the early 2000s, when interest rates are lower and China is ramping up its domestic capital investment. The Arab Spring was actually induced by the monetary policy, the easy money policies unleashed on the world by the Federal Reserve that served to push up grain prices. So where are we today? It would seem as if the oil investment has run off and that the shale,. you know, oil investment is down and the shale oil is investment, which runs off pretty quickly as far as I can understand That's not being replaced.